Speaking at Asean’s Regional Security Forum in Bali this past weekend,
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged Asean, and Indonesia
specifically, to help promote democracy in Burma, the Middle East and
North Africa.
While the attempt to spread democracy is admirable
and will be met with polite approval, it is very unlikely that
Indonesia and Asean will assist the United States in promoting
democracy, especially in Burma, for several reasons.
First is that the current economic weakness of the United States
strongly undermines its position. The tsunami-like spread of democracy
in the 1980s and ’90s to some degree was bolstered by the bankruptcy of
communist countries. Governments in these nations fell after citizens
compared their horrid economic conditions with the prosperity of the
United States under Ronald Reagan.
Gorbachov’s decision to
launch glasnost (political openness) and perestroika (economic reform)
was influenced by what he considered to be a successful Western economic
model. It was no wonder that in 1989, Francis Fukuyama published his
famous essay, “The End of History,” celebrating the advent of liberal
democracy.
In today’s economic climate, however, authoritarian
leaders and their populations are appalled by America’s lack of economic
discipline and massive debt. Authoritarian leaders and thrifty
populations in Southeast Asia are more likely to applaud the responsible
semi-authoritarian system of Singapore or the economic-oriented
authoritarian system of China than the spendthrift democratic United
States.
They see that whereas China and Singapore built
themselves up under strong leaders, leading to strong economic growth,
the democratic United States is currently in the grips of “the Great
Recession.” In addition, current political gridlock in Washington
between Republicans and Democrats, combined with Obama’s inability to
keep things in order, has damaged America’s prestige — not to mention
its economic ratings.
If democracy provides nothing but economic
crisis, political squabbling and gridlock, why would anyone want it?
Better stick with the authoritarian system of China, the thinking goes,
or the semi-authoritarianism of Singapore, both of which seem to know
what they are doing and can act decisively in times of need.
Recalling
the Great Depression of the 1930s, it was economic crisis that
discredited democracies. Popular demand for strong governments launched
totalitarian regimes in Germany and Italy. Finally, it was the economic
prosperity of the 1980s that signaled the end of communism.
In
essence, former President Bill Clinton was right: It’s the economy,
stupid. The sooner the United States can get its fiscal house in order,
the sooner it will again be the beacon of democracy that many countries
want to emulate.
The other reason that Hillary Clinton’s words
are likely to have little effect on Asean lies in the simple fact that
the grouping does not have much power over its members. Asean’s lack of
formal organizational structure and punishment mechanisms means that
getting something done depends on both the consensus and the willingness
of its members to act. Unlike the European Union, which has a “carrot
and stick” ability to punish and reward members through economic policy,
Asean has nothing more than social pressure and the threat of expulsion
from the group.
The power of social pressure, however, is
strongly undermined by the geostrategic concerns of the bloc’s members.
While political oppression, human rights violations and electoral
manipulations in Burma have embarrassed Asean, member states have little
economic leverage with which to force action. It would be far more
damaging for Burma to upset its primary patron, China.
At this
point, with the conflict in the South China Sea at the forefront of
Asean’s attention, there is simply no appetite to engage and to enrage
Burma over its human rights records, lest Burma, upset with what would
be seen as international meddling, leave Asean and get pulled closer
into Beijing’s orbit. This could further threaten the interests and
security of Asean itself. Thus, Asean’s options are very limited in this
case.
Moreover, the human rights records of many Asean members
are not that stellar either. Recent political suppression in Malaysia
over the Bersih 2.0 movement undermines the image of the country as a
democratic state that guarantees freedom of speech and conducts
elections fairly. In Indonesia, violence against religious minorities,
some officials’ complete disregard of the rule of law in order to impose
discriminatory policies on religious minorities and recent reports of
possible human rights violations in Papua raise a lot of eyebrows. The
rest of the Asean countries do not get off scot-free either. In short,
many Asean countries themselves are not in the position to lecture
others on human rights as they have their own human-rights skeletons in
their closets.
Adding to all of this is the fact that there is
no political will in Indonesia to assist the United States in promoting
democracy. Indonesia at this point is completely preoccupied with
political scandals involving President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s party.
With each installment of Nazaruddin’s allegation drawing the
government’s attention, foreign policy and initiatives become the first
casualties of a government scrambling to douse public outrage.
In
today’s Indonesia, many people are looking at the performance of the
government and the legislature and lamenting the dysfunction and
inability of both to get things done. They are looking back with
nostalgia on the stability and economic growth of Suharto’s New Order,
blaming current government paralysis on the excesses of “liberal
democracy,” which is seen as not having local roots. While those people
are in the minority, this is still a worrying trend, coming so close on
the heels of Suharto’s repression.
Thus, Hillary Clinton was
right to encourage entrepreneurship. A push for greater democracy is not
the only component that is needed, economic fulfillment is also
necessary. Prosperity is the best way to spread democracy and the first
thing the United States has to do is to get its economy in order by
making painful sacrifices.
Yohanes Sulaiman is a lecturer at
the National Defense University. He can be reached at