Officials will likely enact increased security in Papua and West Papua, Indonesia, for July 1 separatist anniversary. Rallies possible.
Event
Authorities will likely impose heightened security in Papua and West Papua provinces in the run-up to the July 1 anniversary of the declaration of a separatist "Republic of West Papua." Increased security measures are likely in Jayapura, Manokwari, Nabire, Timika, and Wamena cities, as well as Intan Jaya, Puncak Jaya, Tolikara, and Yahukimo regencies. Officials will probably monitor transport centers, including Jayapura's Dortheys Hiyo Eluay International Airport (DJJ), and government buildings like provincial, city, and regency councils. Heightened security is also likely at PT Freeport Indonesia's (PTFI) facilities, especially the Grasberg mine in Mimika Regency's Tembagapura District, as armed criminal groups (KKB) have carried out shootings near the mine.
Pro-independence activists may stage rallies involving hundreds to thousands of people ahead of and on the anniversary, particularly in major population centers like Jayapura and Manokwari. Demonstrations and increased security measures may trigger localized transport and business disruptions, especially July 1. Clashes between security forces and pro-independence activists are possible; any significant violence could prompt further protests after the anniversary. Mass arrests may occur if security forces consider any gathering to violate COVID-19 restrictions.
Pro-independence supporters could engage in acts of civil disobedience, including raising the banned Bintang Kejora (Morning Star) separatist flag, an act of treason under Indonesian law. Pro-independence fighters could stage small-scale attacks, particularly in remote highland areas. Activists in the region have targeted government and other public buildings during previous incidents; vandalism and arson attacks cannot be ruled out.
Context
The anniversary will occur amid continued demonstrations by people in Papua over planned government policies, such as the proposed provincial expansion. Opponents of the measures say that the policies would not aid the region's economic development and would only benefit the local political elites. Additionally, KKB groups continue to stage attacks, which typically target Indonesian soldiers and police officers, as well as workers and facilities of PTFI. The incidents point to the continued tension between Indonesian authorities and people in Papua, who claim that the Indonesian central government racially discriminates against people in Papua and that it does not sufficiently develop the provinces.
Advice
Use caution if operating near possible protest and fighting sites, especially July 1. Avoid any demonstrations due to possible clashes. Seek updated information from local contacts on any rally or clash locations and related disruptions. Plan for localized disruptions near any gatherings or fighting and seek alternative routes to circumvent affected areas. If any violence erupts nearby, immediately depart the area. Strictly avoid any sites where the Morning Star flag appears (the flag has blue and white stripes with a red panel emblazoned with a white star). Heed all official traffic and security advisories.